What’s Happening in Finance & Markets – 18 August 2025

Market overview

U.S. equities started the week subdued. As of the New York midday session, the S&P 500 (via SPY) hovered near 642.9 (down roughly 0.1%), the Dow (via DIA) around 449.0 (slightly lower), and the Nasdaq 100 (via QQQ) near 576.4 (off ~0.2%). Bitcoin traded near 116,500 and Ether around 4,340 amid a modest risk-off tone.

Stock market information for SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY)

• SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust is a fund in the USA market.
• The price is 642.92 USD currently with a change of -0.52 USD (-0.00%) from the previous close.
• The latest open price was 642.86 USD and the intraday volume is 25652276.
• The intraday high is 643.92 USD and the intraday low is 642.1 USD.
• The latest trade time is Monday, August 18, 19:09:29 +0100.

Fed week begins: Jackson Hole in focus

Markets entered Monday in wait-and-see mode ahead of the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole symposium (Aug. 21–23), where Chair Jerome Powell is expected to outline the growth–inflation tradeoff and the path for rates. Pricing implies a strong chance of a quarter-point cut in September, though conviction eased slightly after firmer recent data. (Reuters)

Wall Street muted as retail earnings loom

Major U.S. indices opened essentially flat, with investors bracing for a heavy earnings slate from big-box retailers and for any policy clues later in the week. Breadth was mixed and volumes light, consistent with a macro-driven pause. (Reuters)

Big-box retail on deck: Home Depot, Lowe’s, Walmart, Target

Home improvement bellwethers are in focus as the market gauges consumer durability and the impact of tariffs on margins and pricing. Analysts flagged housing softness and cautious spending, while Home Depot’s stock traded lower into results expected this week. Discounters will be watched for traffic resilience and trade-down dynamics. (Reuters, markets.financialcontent.com)

U.S. homebuilder sentiment slides to a cycle low

The NAHB Housing Market Index fell to 32 in August, matching the weakest levels since late 2022. Builders reported heavier incentives and price cuts to move inventory, underscoring affordability strains even as mortgage rates eased a touch from recent peaks. (Reuters, nahb.org)

Oil steadies as geopolitics simmer

Crude drifted in a tight range with Brent in the mid-$60s as traders awaited headlines from U.S.–Ukraine–Russia shuttle diplomacy. Last week’s mild pullback and today’s steadier tape reflect fading immediate supply risk premia. (Reuters)

Dollar holds firm ahead of policy and geopolitics

The dollar index was broadly steady as markets weighed Jackson Hole signals against this week’s high-stakes political meetings. Rate-cut odds for September remain elevated, but the mix of slower jobs data and tariff uncertainty tempers directional conviction. (Reuters)

Gold edges up on softer yields

Bullion ticked higher as longer-dated Treasury yields eased intraday and investors hedged event risk into Jackson Hole and geopolitical headlines. Positioning remains balanced after last week’s consolidation. (Reuters)

Asia sets the tone: records in Japan and Taiwan

Asian equities kicked off the global session with fresh highs in Japan and Taiwan and a 10-month peak for Chinese blue chips. Optimism around eventual global easing and robust U.S. earnings helped lift risk appetite despite lingering growth concerns. (Reuters)

Europe cautious into data and policy

European benchmarks softened modestly with investors digesting a higher-for-longer message from recent ECB commentary and July inflation running at the 2% target. Bond yields in core markets nudged higher on supply and fiscal chatter. (Reuters)

Bitcoin and Ether cool from recent peaks

After July’s record push above $120,000, Bitcoin pulled back toward the mid-$110Ks, while Ether held the low-$4,000s. The pause reflects a lighter risk tone and profit-taking ahead of macro catalysts, even as institutional flows remain supportive. (Reuters)

Rates watch: long end anchored by supply and tariffs debate

A recent poll signaled that concerns over tariff-driven inflation and heavy Treasury issuance could keep longer-term yields sticky, even if the Fed trims policy rates. That setup favors curve-steepening risk and keeps duration decisions front and center for asset allocators. (Reuters)

Consumer pulse: sentiment softer into late summer

Preliminary August readings showed U.S. consumer sentiment deteriorating month-over-month, with expectations weakening on price and policy uncertainty. Retail earnings this week will test whether resilient spending by higher-income cohorts can keep headline consumption afloat. (sca.isr.umich.edu, Reuters)

Semis and AI: Nvidia in the wings

While not reporting today, the AI bellwether remains a key volatility node for broader tech given its outsize earnings power and sensitivity to export policy. Options markets imply brisk post-print moves, and positioning could color Nasdaq leadership later in the week. (Reuters)

Housing read-through to retail hardlines

Soft builder confidence and rate-sensitive projects keep attention on big-ticket categories like appliances and flooring. Guidance commentary on professional contractor demand versus do-it-yourself traffic will be a focal point for both hardlines and wider discretionary signals. (Reuters)

Cross-currents into the close

With Jackson Hole ahead and geopolitics in the frame, Monday’s session favored consolidation: modest equity dips, steady FX, contained commodities, and selective stock-specific moves in rumor-driven names and policy-exposed sectors. (Reuters)

Market Movers

• S&P 500, Dow, Nasdaq 100: narrowly lower in quiet trade
• Home Depot, Lowe’s: in focus ahead of earnings; stocks softer intraday
• Retail cohort: Walmart, Target sentiment watch into prints
• Gold: firmer on softer yields and event risk hedging
• Oil: little changed, Brent mid-$60s awaiting headlines
• Bitcoin, Ether: off recent highs, consolidating gains
• Long U.S. yields: steady; supply and tariff discussion keep term premium in play

Investor takeaway

The market is marking time. With Jackson Hole, retail earnings, and sensitive geopolitics converging, price action suggests positioning rather than conviction. For multi-asset investors, the near-term setup argues for balance: keep quality growth where earnings momentum is strongest, pair with defensive carry (IG credit, dividend growth), and maintain optionality around the curve as the Fed communicates its next steps. In crypto, a consolidating tape into macro events favors staggered entries over momentum chases.